ThumMusings

Bringing the user interface of music-making into the 21st Century, and changing the world... one note at a time.

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Name: ThumMeister
Location: Austin, Texas, United States

In the late 1980’s, I tried to write insanely great code for the Mac and help others do so, too. When Windows swept through the Valley in 1991-2, I realized my great code would become worthless if the Mac platform sank. I became very interested in knowing how to spot winning platforms. Since Microsoft clearly knew how to make its platforms succeed, I joined its Systems Strategy Group. While designing and executing practical "technology evangelism" campaigns, I studied the theory behind the practice, eventually teaching mandatory "how-to" seminars to Microsoft's new evangelists. I left Microsoft in 2000, looking for a new industry to disrupt. When my wife quit her piano lessons after six months of diligent practice, saying that “music is just too hard,” I knew I’d found it. Hammering the Web relentlessly, I found a novel combination of old ideas which could make music dramatically easier to teach, learn, & play, more emotionally expressive, and expand the frontiers of tonality. This blog tells the story of my bringing those innovations to market.

Friday, June 8, 2007

How?

How will Thumtronics make its innovations successful?

In the long run, Thumtronics’ innovations in the display and control of musical information – the ThumMusic System – are likely to have the biggest impact on the world, by making it possible for essentially everyone to understand, play, and create music. However, the ThumMusic System is going to be a tough sell, because its benefits are hard to communicate in a 30-second “elevator pitch.”

On the other hand, the benefits of the Thummer are obvious from a 30-second demo video (such as this one, and this one). Musicians playing the Thummer in a band, in live performances, or in YouTube videos will be “advertising” the Thummer for us, making the Thummer extremely viral, which is likely to lead to very rapid exponential growth sales growth.

How rapid? ThumClub members tell us that, if the Thummer lives up to their expectations, they expect to be able to convince an average of five other people to buy one. If they can do that in six months, with those five each “selling” five more, and so on, then Thummer sales will simply explode. Even if each Thummer buyer convinced only 1.4 additional people to buy Thummers, then from first year sales of just 1,500 units, Thummer revenues would exceed $10 million within three years and $100 million within six years (all else being equal). It’s the self-advertising, viral nature of the Thummer that makes it such a compelling commercial opportunity.

The success of the Thummer can pull the ThumMusic System along in its wake, just as the increasing popularity of the guitar made guitar tab popular. Once the ThumMusic System gains a foothold in the market, its growth rate can exceed that of the Thummer, because the ThumMusic System is also applicable to the standard computer keyboard and to the human voice.

At that point, the commercial opportunity of the ThumMusic System should be considerable – online lessons, sheet music downloads, certification exams, etc..

But first we have to make the Thummer successful.

We’ll do this by raising the capital needed to finish the design, engineering, and testing of the Thummer; selling the Thummer directly to consumers over the Internet from Thumtronics’ website; encouraging the independent development of associated websites (like Amazon Associates) through revenue-sharing; leveraging the free PR that we’ve already been offered by FOCUS, I Want That!, and other relevant media; and accelerating the viral marketing process through a variety of means, such as “discount for a friend” coupons, online video contests, and aggressive promotion of those musicians and bands who best show off the Thummer’s unique abilities. The incredible new possibilites presented by Dynamic Tuning – which only works on a Thummer – will tend to accelerate this process, once creative artists show the world how powerful Dynamic Tuning can be.

That’s the plan, anyway – loose and flexible, allowing us to respond to the market as we go along.

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