"Obviously"...in Retrospect
After a new product has turned its industry upside-down, people always say “well, of course! That product was obviously going to be a success.” But it is rarely so clear ahead of time.
For example, in 1968, HP introduced a desktop scientific calculator which weighed 40 pounds and cost $5,000. It was the smallest, lightest, fastest, most powerful, and cheapest calculator of its day. After it was demonstrated to HP co-founder Bill Hewlett, he suggested that they should make a new calculator that was ten times smaller, faster, and cheaper – the first pocket calculator.
HP’s marketing studies suggested that this would be a mistake. Apparently, the price and size of the HP 9100 conveyed a sense of value and reliability, whereas a pocket-sized calculator at a lower price would inevitably seem more toy-like. It was believed that the total world market for pocket calculators was perhaps 50,000 units. Bill Hewlitt, company co-founder, developed it anyway.
Within the first few months that the HP-35 was available in 1972, HP received orders exceeding their guess as to the total market size. General Electric alone placed an order for 20,000 units.
How could HP have so badly under-estimated the demand for pocket-sized scientific calculators? My guess is that they looked at the market for the HP-9100 and multiplied it, rather than looking at the market for slide rules and multiplying that.
The real target market was not just those who used slide rules, but also those who attempted to use slide rules and failed. Such failure was hardly surprising, since using a slide rule requires (a) understanding logarithms, which most people can’t even spell, yet alone understand, and (b) performing the desired calculation in your head first, to get an idea of where the decimal place should go in the final result. The pocket calculator eliminated this significant learning-and-use barrier to scientific calculation, thereby expanding the market beyond that of the ubiquitous slide rule.
It’s all so obvious in hindsight, isn’t it? Simplicity, affordability, power, portability – the HP-35 had it all. Obviously it was going to be a run-away success. Right?
Now, look at the Thummer.
Enough said?
For example, in 1968, HP introduced a desktop scientific calculator which weighed 40 pounds and cost $5,000. It was the smallest, lightest, fastest, most powerful, and cheapest calculator of its day. After it was demonstrated to HP co-founder Bill Hewlett, he suggested that they should make a new calculator that was ten times smaller, faster, and cheaper – the first pocket calculator.
HP’s marketing studies suggested that this would be a mistake. Apparently, the price and size of the HP 9100 conveyed a sense of value and reliability, whereas a pocket-sized calculator at a lower price would inevitably seem more toy-like. It was believed that the total world market for pocket calculators was perhaps 50,000 units. Bill Hewlitt, company co-founder, developed it anyway.
Within the first few months that the HP-35 was available in 1972, HP received orders exceeding their guess as to the total market size. General Electric alone placed an order for 20,000 units.
How could HP have so badly under-estimated the demand for pocket-sized scientific calculators? My guess is that they looked at the market for the HP-9100 and multiplied it, rather than looking at the market for slide rules and multiplying that.
The real target market was not just those who used slide rules, but also those who attempted to use slide rules and failed. Such failure was hardly surprising, since using a slide rule requires (a) understanding logarithms, which most people can’t even spell, yet alone understand, and (b) performing the desired calculation in your head first, to get an idea of where the decimal place should go in the final result. The pocket calculator eliminated this significant learning-and-use barrier to scientific calculation, thereby expanding the market beyond that of the ubiquitous slide rule.
It’s all so obvious in hindsight, isn’t it? Simplicity, affordability, power, portability – the HP-35 had it all. Obviously it was going to be a run-away success. Right?
Now, look at the Thummer.
Enough said?
Labels: calculator, cheap, obvious, portable, powerful, simple, Thummer
posted by ThumMeister | 12:28 PM
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